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Matt's avatar

I think you are WAY overthinking the special master's comment about the assumption that APE would need to be invalidated.

I think it is quite simple. You have an action here where conversion benefits APE and the objectors say it hurts AMC (otherwise what the heck are they objecting to?).

Well there are about 900M APE shares and about 500M AMC shares, so I think it is fair to assume that if they were to all vote under the new 242(d) the result would be obvious. The 900M shares whose interest it is to have conversion will win that vote. I don't need to even open my statistics books to know that. So the obvious thing is that any objector insisting that this is all voted again, must also be hoping that somehow the court will invalidate the APE shares, otherwise their objection makes no sense.

On the other point you harp on about diluting APE and never converting... That is not an option. The board originally allowed them to dilute if the share price was over $2 (repeating this from memory so may be off here a bit) and as they diluted the share price fell and the board gave further approval to sell if the share price is over $1. However the share price still fell (to as low as $0.65) when the company barely diluted the stock (fyi, the Antara transaction was a private deal that would have no impact on trading dynamics so we are talking minimal dilution driving the share price down). From an equity viewpoint, the structure at that point was extremely dilutive... Further, there was a very real risk you would see the price fall even further and even with all the preferred shares they would be unable to raise sufficient funds. Also, at some point you still need to have that shareholder vote, when now the vast majority of your shareholders demand that you convert the shares. You can't simply give preference to the desires of AMC holders over APE holders and block the conversion perpetually.

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James's avatar

Damn, lawyers really do think of everything haha

I've never worked in the industry so I'm also probably missing a lot of things / wrong somewhere in my beliefs, but the arguments against your alternative that I thought of off the top of my head:

1. Listing fees - from what I know, they are paying additional fees to keep APE listed on the exchange; it might not be much but why spend it if you don't have to, especially with the precariousness of their financials

2. Dilution - Just by the APEs existing, the APE dilution has already been somewhat reflected in the markets; AMC is probably currently trading at much less than the price it would have traded at if APEs were never issued. Even if the alternative path were to be taken, I don't think APEs would go to zero because there is always the optionality of a conversion in the future, so they will always hold some value, and that value is taken from common.

3. Offering dynamics - there probably exists the worry of lack of demand for common in a potential offering because of the looming thought of common/preferred collapse. Who would buy the common when the price would fall if they ever announce the conversion in the future? So maybe this alternative will end up not being value accretive anyway as they have to offer at lower prices for anyone to take a nibble.

IMO, the alternative would mean the company would be taking an L that could, in the worst case, potentially harm their future prospects. That being said, I think the chance for such a path is definitely non-zero.

What's hard for me to grasp from a multitude of standpoints is that before the settlement hearing, I looked through social media just to see what shareholders were saying, and the vibe I got was that most people online actually want the settlement to go through (or for AMC to win through other ways). Given the knowledge of the fractures, both intra- and inter-, within the classes, what would be the "best" way of resolving this shitshow for as many parties as possible (legally or morally)? I still can't think of a good answer.

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